Ukraine Drones Losses Are ‘10,000 Per Month’ ten thousand Russian jamming
A new report by British military thinktank RUSI published on May 19th claims that Ukraine is losing an incredible 10,000 drones a month, mainly due to Russian electronic jamming. While this figure may not be entirely accurate, it indicates the key role that drones are now playing in this war and the sheer number involved – and that thousands of cheap drones are more sustainable than a few expensive jets.
The report, ‘Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine’ looks at several aspects of the war and the Russian use of armor, infantry, and air power, but the section on electronic warfare has the most eye-catching statistic:
"Electronic warfare remains a critical component of the Russian way of fighting. While there was an extremely high density of EW [Electronic Warfare] systems in Donbas in 2022, the AFRF now employ approximately one major EW system per 10 km of frontage, usually situated approximately 7 km from the frontline… These platforms are usually aimed at controlling and defeating UAVs [Uncrewed Air Vehicles – drones]…The Russian military is also continuing to make extensive use of navigational interference in the battle area as a form of electronic protection. This is contributing to a Ukrainian loss rate in UAVs of approximately 10,000 per month." (my emphasis)
The report is based on extensive interview with Ukrainian military personnel. The footnote for the claim of 10,000 losses a month is referenced interviews with three anonymous sources, T,O and B.
A Ukrainian operator prepares to launch a commercial quadcopter drone in Donetsk Oblast, Such drones ... [+] have become vital eyes in the sky for Ukrainian forces.
This aspect of the report predictably drew a lot of comment and one of the report's authors, Dr. Jack Watling, responded with a detailed Twitter thread entitled ‘Numbers in War’ in which he noted that the war was being fought over a 1,200 kilometer front, that drones are now used by every Ukrainian platoon and that the vast majority are commercial quadcopters.
"So how confident am I in the number 10,000 per month? As an exact number, I’m not. The actual total varies month by month and day by day and is not closely tracked. But consumption is definitely very high," says Watling. "So if the figure isn't exact - any neatly rounded figures are suspicious - why use it at all? Firstly because it is the number we got from the Ukrainian General Staff and from the part that has the best data. [Secondly] Putting a number to consumption is important in making the policy relevant point."
The Ukrainians themselves may not have an accurate figure. Small drone procurement is not centralized, and a host of small and large volunteer groups, expat and foreign donors as well as governments donates drones,. Mark Hamill's support for Ukraine's Army of Drones fundraising initiative is a leading example. Sometimes they can send just a few drones at a time and sometimes hundreds, directly to frontline units who requested them
Arguably, the number is still on the high side. In March, a Ukrainian official put drone losses at 10- 15 per day or 300-450 per month.
On the other side, the official Ukrainian claim for Russian casualties –generally seen as wildly over-inflated – states that they destroyed ‘only’ 2,811 Russian drones in the 15 months to May 21st . At less than 200 a month, this would be about 2% of what Ukraine may be losing. Russia is likely fielding fewer drones than Ukraine due to chronic supply issues, and Ukrainian electronic warfare may not be as efficient. Even taking these into account, a 50:1 loss ratio still looks anomalous. This also suggests Ukrainian losses may be less than 10,000 a month.
However, even if the figure really is 10,000, this appears sustainable. A key feature of small drones, as I note in my book Swarm Troopers, is their supreme affordability compared to military hardware. 10,000 DJI quadcopters at an average cost of about $1,000 would be $10m. Last week, Russia lost an Su-34 bomber, with a sticker price of something over $40m. Ukraine appears to be acquire masses of DJI drones fairly easily, but Russia struggles to build even small numbers of military aircraft.
And yesterday Russia apparently lost an even more advanced Su-35, which goes for around $85m. Together these two aircraft alone represent a loss ten times as great as all Ukraine's drones for the month put together. It is not the drone losses which are unsustainable.
In addition, drone losses are permanent. An aircraft shot out of the sky stays down, ut jamming is different. When a DJI drone lose radio contact with its operator, due to interference or other causes, it will attempt to return to the last known location where it could communicate. If it cannot re-establish communication, the Failsafe Return-to-Home function activates and it automatically returns to the launch point. If GPS navigation is jammed – as is common across much of the front line – and the drone cannot navigate home, it makes a soft landing wherever it is.
Sometimes jammed drones can be easily retrieved, but most of the time they are likely to be over enemy territory. In January, Ukrainian border guards released a video – ‘saving Private Mavic’ — showing how they were able to send a second drone with a fishing line to retrieve a downed DJI Mavic. The missions is a success, and this tactic may have been repeated many time, but this is a dangerous business. Russian military blogger Russian Engineer warns that downed drones may be booby-trapped.
Russian troops share advice on how to survive constant drone attacks, and the stream of videos of quadcopter attacks on Russian positions suggest that jamming has so far failed to stop even DJI drones from operating at the front lines.
Meanwhile the drones are striking back. Some recent videos show Ukrainian drones hitting Russian counter-drone electronic warfare systems, somehow evading the jamming. There are also rumors that Ukraine is developing drones which are effectively miniature versions of the HARM missiles supplied by the U.S., which can home in on jamming signals so any jammer becomes a target.
In the second year of the war, Ukraine may rely more heavily on military-grade drones with jam-resistant communications, such as the tricopter AtlasPRO, or Golden Eagle quadcopters. But DJI drones are clearly still being acquired and lost in large numbers, even if we do not know the exact figures.
As Watling himself puts it: "Unhardened UAVs are disposable tools like munitions and get consumed very rapidly. You need them in your force and you need them to be cheap."
For decades, Western armies have relied on a few expensive, 'exquisite' high-tech platforms, and that includes drones. This conflict of disposable drones may lead to a radical change in military procurement towards the many and the cheap.
a Ukrainian loss rate in UAVs of approximately 10,000 per month."